Telfer Business Journal

On January 3rd, 2026, the United States Air and Naval forces captured Nicolás Maduro alongside his wife, claiming alleged drug trafficking and weapon charges. This incident has sparked international discourse about the legitimacy of these actions and the United States’ plan for Venezuela.

With Maduro out of office, Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s Vice president, is head of state in his stead. However, during a press meeting, President Trump stated that “We’re gonna run it, essentially (...)” while referring to the Venezuelan government. This statement led many to believe the presence of an ulterior motive behind Trump’s agenda.

Later in his speech, President Trump gave more insight into the economic implications of such an event, his statement being as follows: “As everyone knows, the oil business in Venezuela has been a bust, a total bust, for a long period of time. They were pumping almost nothing compared to what they could.” He is referring to Venezuela’s slowed crude oil production since 2014 (refer to Appendix A). For the last decade, the production of crude oil slowed to under 2 million barrels per day (b/d) from 2015-2019 to under 1 million b/d in 2020-2024. The United States hopes to secure Venezuela’s crude oil reserves under American control.

Venezuela has the world’s largest reserves of crude oil, sitting under 300.8 billion barrels of crude oil (refer to Appendix B). To compare, Canada has 170.3 billion barrels of crude oil reserves and ranks among the fourth-largest reserves worldwide.

Venezuela’s oil reserve is found in the Orinoco Belt spanning across Guarico state and Anzoategui State, both found in central Venezuela (appendix C). Since mineral fuels and oil encompass 79.6% of the country’s total exports (10.8 billion USD), the industry plays a big role in the socio-economic factors that shape Venezuela.

History of Venezuela’s oil production:

Please refer to Appendix D for this section

From 1965 to 1970 and from 1970 to 1975, crude oil production peaked at 3,550,200 and 3,403,400 b/d, exploitation being heavily supported by a considerable increase in crude oil price.

Controversially, during the 80s, crude oil prices dropped significantly, leading to systemic depression for Venezuelans. During this time, crude oil production dropped to 1,879,100 barrels per day, nearly a 50% decrease in production.

Following the production increase in the 90s, from 2005 to 2009, prices increased gradually, stabilizing crude oil supply at an average daily production of 2,887,700 barrels. It is important to note that in the 20th century, relations between Venezuela and the United States were strong. This shifted in 1999, when Hugo Chávez took office as president of Venezuela. He declared himself a socialist and "anti-imperialist”. Ever since, tension between the two countries has deteriorated, notably through the Bush and Obama administrations. Hence, this era saw a notable arms deal made with Russia, followed by the nationalization of key energy companies, expropriating ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, two leading US oil companies. Furthermore, an oil and gas cooperation was signed by Russian and Venezuelan officials.

Venezuela recently attempted to join the BRICS organization during its 2024 meeting, signalling potential favouritism when choosing trading partners. As of 2023, China receives approximately 68% of extracted crude oil compared to the United States’ 23%, confirming preferential treatment. Considering the apprehensions between the United States, China and Russia, with such a large supply of crude oil, American officials were worried about the distribution of those resources.

Current-day production has stagnated partially due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the nation’s increased political instability and the price of crude oil descending at a constant rate. From 2020 to 2024, the average daily production totalled 715,400 barrels, an all-time low for the country. During 2020, the yearly GDP totalled 42.84 billion. The last time the county’s GDP was lower than it was in 1978. In contrast, in 2024, the country’s GDP nearly tripled to 119.8 billion in merely five years.

Current plans from the United States:

As previously mentioned, the president is hoping that America controls and has access to the Venezuelan Oil supply. As of the 9th of January, the US Coast Guard has seized their 5th Venezuelan-linked tanker. He also claims that “BIG OIL” are eager and ready to invest. “At least 100 billion Dollars will be invested by BIG OIL, all of whom I will be meeting with today at The White House,” Trump posted online early morning on January 9th. The companies present will be ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Continental, Halliburton, HKN, Valero, Marathon, Shell, Vitol Americas, Repsol, Eni, Aspect Holdings, Tallgrass, Raisa Energy, Hilcorp and Trafigura.

ExxonMobil is a global integrated oil & gas company involved in the exploration, production, Refining, petrochemicals and marketing of fuel. They are one of the world’s largest publicly traded energy companies. Please refer to Appendix E for their stock price charts.

ConocoPhillips is a major independent exploration & production (E&P) company. They focus on crude oil, natural gas, LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) and Bitumen. They operate in 15 countries. Please refer to Appendix F for their stock price charts.

Continental Resources is a privately held U.S. oil & natural gas producer. They are known for Shale development (Bakken, Anadarko, Powder River, Permian).

Halliburton is one of the world’s largest oilfield services companies. They provide drilling, well construction, fracking and production services globally. Please refer to Appendix G for their stock price charts.

HKN Energy are a privately held oil & gas operator. They operate in the fields in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (Sarsang & Atrush blocks).

Valero is a major refining and fuels company. They produce gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, ethanol and renewable diesel. They operate the largest refining system in the U.S. and major assets in Canada. Please refer to Appendix H for their stock price charts.

Marathon (Marathon Petroleum Corporation) is a large downstream refining and marketing company. They were acquired by ConocoPhillips in 2024, but Marathon Petroleum remains separate. They are the largest U.S. refining system and have several retail fuel stations (Marathon brand) in the U.S. Please refer to Appendix I for their stock price charts.

Shell is a global integrated energy company. Their business includes Oil & gas, LNG, Chemicals, Renewables, Retail fuels and Industrial fuels & lubricants. Please refer to Appendix J for their stock price charts.

Vitol Americas, the American brand of Vitol Group, which is the world’s largest independent energy & commodity trader. They trade in crude oil, refined products, natural gas, power and metals. Vitol Americas handles U.S. operations and petroleum products.

Repsol is a global integrated energy company from Spain. Their activities include oil & gas exploration & production, refining, petrochemicals, fuel retail and some renewable energy (solar, wind). Please refer to Appendix K for their stock price charts.

Eni is a major integrated energy company based in Italy. Their business includes oil & gas exploration & production, transport & storage, refining, power generation and renewables. Please refer to Appendix L for their stock price charts.

Aspect Holdings is a private oil & gas exploration and production company. They are known for seismic exploration, shale & tight gas development, international drilling (U.S., Hungary, Kurdistan, Peru, Belize). They also invest in wind, potash, and energy technology.

Tallgrass Energy is a major energy infrastructure company. They operate natural gas pipelines, oil pipelines and storage terminals. They handle over 10,000 miles of pipeline across the US and are developing CO₂, hydrogen, and renewable fuels infrastructure.

Raisa Energy is a non‑operated oil & gas investment company. They buy mineral interests and non‑operated working interests. They use AI and big data to evaluate energy investments in U.S. shale basins.

Hilcorp is the largest privately held oil & gas producer in the US. They focus on acquiring mature fields, revitalizing declining wells and onshore & offshore U.S. operations (Alaska, Gulf Coast, etc.).

Trafigura is one of the world’s largest commodity trading and logistics companies. They trade in oil, refined products, metals, minerals and operate global logistics, terminals, shipping, and storage networks.

What this means for Canada

For Canada, the implications of a potential reopening of Venezuela’s oil sector are significant but uncertain. Canadian heavy oil directly competes with Venezuelan crude, and a sustained recovery in Venezuelan output, especially if driven by preferential access for U.S. firms, could pressure Canadian producers and North American prices. Despite this resource base, decades of nationalization, sanctions, underinvestment, and infrastructure decay have slashed Venezuelan production from more than three million barrels per day in the late 1990s to under one million barrels per day in 2024. Rehabilitating the sector would likely require up to US$100 billion over several years, amid persistent political risk. However, analysts caution that Venezuela is unlikely to flood global markets quickly due to damaged infrastructure, market oversupply, and investor hesitation, even with the investment by “BIG OIL”.

In all, Canada retains a strong position in the U.S. market, but should act proactively by accelerating export capacity to Asia and diversifying markets, recognizing that the United States will prioritize its own companies’ interests in any Venezuelan revival, potentially sidelining Canadian companies and production.

To conclude, Venezuela’s oil sector has become the focal point of a broader geopolitical and economic power struggle rather than a simple energy revival story. While the country possesses unparalleled crude oil reserves, decades of political instability, nationalization, sanctions, and infrastructure decay mean that any meaningful recovery will be slow, costly, and highly uncertain, even under direct US influence and heavy investment from major oil companies. The United States’ actions suggest a strategic objective of reasserting control over a critical global energy supply to counter rivals such as China and Russia, using Venezuela’s oil as both an economic and geopolitical lever.

Appendix A: Oil production 5-year average daily production in barrels per day (b/d)

1965-1969 - 3,550,200

1970-1974 - 3,402,400

1975-1979 - 2,279,700

1980-1984 - 1,952,900

1985-1989 - 1,805,200

1990-1994 - 2,403,300

1995-1999 - 3,241,800

2000-2004 - 2,887,700

2005-2009 - 2,898,000

2010-2014 - 2,657,000

2015-2019 - 1,879,600